A Bayesian approach to simultaneously characterize the stochastic and deterministic components of a system

The present work provides a Bayesian approach to learn plausible models capable of characterizing complex time series in which deterministic and stochastic phenomena concur. Two main approaches are actually developed. The first approach, is a simple superposition model grounded on the hypothesis that the interactions between the stochastic and deterministic phenomena are negligible. To enable this model to capture complex dynamics, the stochastic part is assumed to be a fractal signal. Under the assumptions of this model, an analysis method is proposed, enabling the characterization of the fractal stochastic component and the estimation the deterministic part. The second main approach relies on Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to model systems where the stochastic and deterministic part interact. First, a non-parametric estimation method for SDEs is developed, using recent advances from Gaussian processes. Finally, the thesis studies how to overcome the main constraint that the use of SDEs imposes: the Markovianity assumption. To that end, a new structured variational autoencoder with latent SDE dynamics is proposed. All the methods are tested on both synthetic and real signals, demonstrating its ability to capture the behavior of complex systems

Determination of the heat release rate inside operational road tunnels by comparison with CFD calculations

Usually, during a fire inside a tunnel, the average heat release rate (HRR) is estimated according to the type of vehicle. Frequently, the overall HRR is considered, however it is also necessary to know its time evolution to design real time systems, particularly ventilation, which respond to fire events or signals as fast as possible. Nowadays, there is not a well established and generally accepted procedure to know the power liberated at each instant of time inside an operational tunnel. That procedure could help in taking the correct actions to adapt the tunnel ventilation in order to diminish the effects of the fire and the smoke. This work shows a method to calculate the heat release rate using sensors that can be installed inside an operational road tunnel. Besides, the location of the fire could also be calculated accurately and quickly. To achieve the previous purposes, a stationary database that depends on HRR, its location, and the ventilation speed is calculated with CFD programs; the data are compared with temperatures measured by the sensors located inside the tunnel. The program used to generate the database is the simplified model UPMTUNNEL. The predictions of the model are compared with the results of calculations carried out using the general purpose code FLUENT, and with measurements done in a tunnel with a real fire, produced with a fuel tray

Pancreatic metastases from renal cell carcinoma. Postoperative outcome after surgical treatment in a Spanish multicenter study (PANMEKID)

Background: Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) occasionally spreads to the pancreas. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the short and long-term results of a multicenter series in order to determine the effect of surgical treatment on the prognosis of these patients. Methods: Multicenter retrospective study of patients undergoing surgery for RCC pancreatic metastases, from January 2010 to May 2020. Variables related to the primary tumor, demographics, clinical characteristics of metastasis, location in the pancreas, type of pancreatic resection performed and data on short and long-term evolution after pancreatic resection were collected. Results: The study included 116 patients. The mean time between nephrectomy and pancreatic metastases' resection was 87.35 months (ICR: 1.51-332.55). Distal pancreatectomy was the most performed technique employed (50 %). Postoperative morbidity was observed in 60.9 % of cases (Clavien-Dindo greater than IIIa in 14 %). The median follow-up time was 43 months (13-78). Overall survival (OS) rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 96 %, 88 %, and 83 %, respectively. The disease-free survival (DFS) rate at 1, 3, and 5 years was 73 %, 49 %, and 35 %, respectively. Significant prognostic factors of relapse were a disease free interval of less than 10 years (2.05 [1.13-3.72], p 0.02) and a history of previous extrapancreatic metastasis (2.44 [1.22-4.86], p 0.01). Conclusions: Pancreatic resection if metastatic RCC is found in the pancreas is warranted to achieve higher overall survival and disease-free survival, even if extrapancreatic metastases were previously removed. The existence of intrapancreatic multifocal compromise does not always warrant the performance of a total pancreatectomy in order to improve survival. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd

Heart rate variability analysis with the R package RHRV

This book introduces readers to the basic concepts of Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and its most important analysis algorithms using a hands-on approach based on the open-source RHRV software. HRV refers to the variation over time of the intervals between consecutive heartbeats. Despite its apparent simplicity, HRV is one of the most important markers of the autonomic nervous system activity and it has been recognized as a useful predictor of several pathologies. The book discusses all the basic HRV topics, including the physiological contributions to HRV, clinical applications, HRV data acquisition, HRV data manipulation and HRV analysis using time-domain, frequency-domain, time-frequency, nonlinear and fractal techniques. Detailed examples based on real data sets are provided throughout the book to illustrate the algorithms and discuss the physiological implications of the results. Offering a comprehensive guide to analyzing beat information with RHRV, the book is intended for masters and Ph.D. students in various disciplines such as biomedical engineering, human and veterinary medicine, biology, and pharmacy, as well as researchers conducting heart rate variability analyses on both human and animal data

Revista Latinoamericana de Educación y Estudios Interculturales (Vol. 1 no. 0 jul-sep 2017)

En el Centro Regional de Formación Docente e Investigación Educativa, nos congratulamos de asociarnos con la Universidad Intercultural de Chiapas para dar vida a la Revista Latinoamericana de Educación y Estudios Interculturales; cuyo objetivo será publicar ensayos de reflexión, artículos con resultados de investigación y propuestas cuya temática aborde los estudios interculturales desde diversas visiones, tales como el derecho, la medicina, el turismo, la lengua y cultura, el desarrollo social, la tecnología; tomando como eje transversal a la educación. Esperamos que esta propuesta que hoy emerge del trabajo de dos instituciones que trabajan la interculturalidad y la educación desde sus trincheras en los Altos de Chiapas y en la Meseta Comiteca Tojolabal; sea un espacio abierto y transparente, en el que profesores, investigadores, estudiante y público en general, encuentre un espacio de difusión de investigaciones y reflexiones en torno a las temáticas abordadas.Cosmovisión y lugares sagrados entre Ch´oles de 10 Tumbalá, Chiapas Arcos Álvaro, Hugo Bladimiro / Arcos Méndez, Nicolás Darío Figurar otro Estado. Emergencia normativa intercultural, 17 una mirada a la historia Mesoamericana Edgar Federico Pérez Martínez / Cristina Pérez Martínez Enseñar y aprender, con dispositivos móviles. 27 Habilidad del presente y futuro Manuel de Jesús Alfaro García Perspectiva de género en la Universidad Intercultural de Chiapas 33 Carmen Marín Levario La evaluación de los aprendizajes bajo el Modelo de Competencias: 42 una necesidad objetiva en el proceso de enseñanza aprendizaje Marco Antonio Constantino Aguilar / Dulce María Guillén Morales / Rosario Mora Lópe

Estimulación del talento matemático en Burgos

Se desarrolla un proyecto de innovación educativa que diseña un plan de formación y elabora actividades de aula para el alumnado del Proyecto ESTALMAT. El alumnado tiene edades comprendidas entre los 12 y los 16 años y han sido seleccionados por presentar altas capacidades para las matemáticas, con el fin de estimular el talento matemático con una formación extraescolar y extracurricular que tienen lugar una tarde a la semana. Se diseña un plan de formación de los estudiantes de tercero de Educación Secundaria Obligatoria, a la vez que se crea una biblioteca con libros para que el alumnado trabaje de manera guiada, estableciendo tutorías y un proceso de evaluación. El equipo de profesores que trabajan en el proyecto han centrado su trabajo en: elaboración de materiales de trabajo con los alumnos; diseño de un plan de tutorías, diseño de una metodología de trabajo con alumnos y alumnas basada en el aprendizaje guiado; y revisión de algunos materiales que no funcionaron en otros cursos. Los contenidos que se han trabajado han sido de dos tipos, unos de tipo matemático, y otros son la tutoría, la evaluación y la difusión de materiales. Tanto el profesorado como el alumnado participante consideran que los materiales tienen gran interés didáctico, son innovadores y originales, y que han sido eficaces para conseguir los objetivos de aprendizaje que se perseguían.Castilla y LeónConsejería de Educación. Dirección General de Universidades e Investigación; Monasterio de Nuestra Señora de Prado, Autovía Puente Colgante s. n.; 47071 Valladolid; +34983411881; +34983411939ES

Matemáticas en la Catedral de Burgos

Se realiza un proyecto de innovación educativa para secundaria en el que se tratan aspectos muy concretos del currículo de la asignatura de Matemáticas desde el punto de vista diferente, tomando como fuente de inspiración un monumento representativo de la ciudad de de Burgos, su catedral. Los elementos elegidos para la elaboración de la propuesta de trabajo para el alumnado han sido las matemáticas presentes en diversas partes o elementos de la catedral: planta principal, capilla de los Condestables, cimborrio, arcos, rosetones y barandillas. Las unidades didácticas desarrolladas han abordado contenidos sobretodo referidos a geometría: traslaciones, giros y simetrías en el plano, áreas y perímetros de polígonos regulares, teselaciones el plano, frisos y mosaicos, proporcionalidad y escalas, y construcciones geométricas con regla y compás. Con la puesta en práctica del proyecto de innovación se ha conseguido elaborar un material didáctico del área de Matemáticas que tuviese como base la catedral de Burgos desde una óptica más matemática que artística fomentando el trabajo individual y de grupo.Castilla y LeónConsejería de Educación. Dirección General de Universidades e Investigación; Monasterio de Nuestra Señora de Prado, Autovía Puente Colgante s. n.; 47071 Valladolid; +34983411881; +34983411939ES

Extreme, wintertime Saharan dust outbreak in the Iberian Peninsula: lidar monitoring and evaluation of dust forecast models during the February 2017 event

An unprecedented extreme Saharan dust event was registered in winter time from 20 to 23 February 2017 over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). We report on aerosol optical properties observed under this extreme dust intrusion through passive and active remote sensing techniques. For that, AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) and EARLINET (European Aerosol Research LIdar NETwork) databases are used. The sites considered are: Barcelona (41.38°N, 2.17°E), Burjassot (39.51°N, 0.42°W), Cabo da Roca (38.78°N, 9.50°W), Évora (38.57°N, 7.91°W), Granada (37.16°N, 3.61°W) and Madrid (40.45°N, 3.72°W). Large aerosol optical depths (AOD) and low Ångström exponents (AE) are observed. An AOD of 2.0 at 675¿nm is reached in several stations. A maximum peak of 2.5 is registered in Évora. During and around the peak of AOD, AEs close to 0 and even slightly negative are measured. With regard to vertically-resolved aerosol optical properties, particle backscatter coefficients as high as 15¿Mm-1¿sr-1 at 355¿nm are recorded at the lidar stations. Layer-mean lidar ratios are found in the range 40–55¿sr at 355¿nm and 34–61¿sr at 532¿nm during the event. The particle depolarization ratios are found to be constant inside the dust layer, and consistent from one site to another. Layer-mean values vary in the range 0.19–0.31. Another remarkable aspect of the event is the limited vertical distribution of the dust plume which never exceeds 5¿km. The extreme aspect of the event also presented a nice case for testing the ability of two dust forecast models, BSC-DREAM8b and NMMB/BSC-Dust, to reproduce the arrival, the vertical distribution and the intensity of the dust plume over a long-range transport region. In the particular case of the February 2017 dust event, we found a large underestimation in the forecast of the extinction coefficient provided by BSC-DREAM8b at all heights independently of the site. In contrast NMMB/BSC-Dust forecasts presented a better agreement with the observations, especially in southwestern part of the IP. With regard to the forecast skill as a function of lead time, no clear degradation of the prognostic is appreciated at 24, 48 and 72¿h for Évora and Granada stations (South). However the prognostic does degrade (bias increases and/or correlation decreases) for Barcelona (North), which is attributed to the fact that Barcelona is at a greater distance from the source region and to the singularity of the event.Peer Reviewe

A rapid rate of sex-chromosome turnover and non-random transitions in true frogs

© The Author(s).The canonical model of sex-chromosome evolution predicts that, as recombination is suppressed along sex chromosomes, gametologs will progressively differentiate, eventually becoming heteromorphic. However, there are numerous examples of homomorphic sex chromosomes across the tree of life. This homomorphy has been suggested to result from frequent sex-chromosome turnovers, yet we know little about which forces drive them. Here, we describe an extremely fast rate of turnover among 28 species of Ranidae. Transitions are not random, but converge on several chromosomes, potentially due to genes they harbour. Transitions also preserve the ancestral pattern of male heterogamety, in line with the ‘hot-potato’ model of sex-chromosome transitions, suggesting a key role for mutation-load accumulation in non-recombining genomic regions. The importance of mutation-load selection in frogs might result from the extreme heterochiasmy they exhibit, making frog sex chromosomes differentiate immediately from emergence and across their entire length.This work was primarily funded by two grants (31003A_166323 & CRSII3_147625) awarded by the Swiss National Science Foundation to N.P.Peer Reviewe